Published on January 3rd, 2015 | by admin0
It’s a Stock Picker’s Market—Or Is It?
This year was supposed to be a good one for stock pickers. Things aren’t working out as planned.
So far in 2014, more actively managed mutual funds are trailing market benchmarks than in any full year since 2011, according to data from Morningstar.
In some cases, the gap is stark. More than 74% of actively managed funds that invest in shares of big U.S. companies are lagging behind the S&P 500 index, up from 50% last year. It is the second-worst performance on record going back to 2004, according to the fund researcher. The story is similar across many categories of funds investing in small- and midsize stocks.
This development has frustrated many stock pickers who were hopeful at the start of 2014, following years in which many of them were unable to post returns in excess of market benchmarks.
Unlike funds tethered to an index, stock pickers on actively managed funds aim to beat the broader market by selecting shares they think will outperform. In many instances, fund managers found themselves on the wrong side of this year’s unexpected market moves, from the selloff in growth shares to the rally in utilities. They also have been hampered by the lack of big swings in stocks, making it harder to single out market-beating shares.
Stock picking is always a risky game, and actively managed funds often lag behind indexes. The proliferation of index funds has made it easier for investors to ride moves in major benchmarks at little cost, and some market observers see actively managed funds as not worth the extra expense.
Still, active managers say 2014 has been particularly frustrating. As the year began, many signs were pointing to a banner performance for those focused on buying and selling individual stocks.
Individual stocks were showing the first signs of becoming unshackled from each other after moving essentially in lock step since the financial crisis. That gave some investors hope that stocks would start trading based on company-specific factors such as earnings or growth or even their attractiveness as a takeover target. That would give stock pickers an edge.
Investors also expected more back-and-forth trading in 2014 after stocks’ broad push higher during 2013′s second half, which would give pickers some opportunity to outpace their indexes.
One big reason a stock pickers’ market hasn’t panned out is that the rally has been a slow, steady grind higher, with few big swings. The result has been that returns from individual stocks have fallen largely within a small range, a phenomenon known as low dispersion.
“The missing link is dispersion,” said Craig Lazzara, senior director of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In an environment of low dispersion, the amount by which a winner can win is less.”
The difference between the worst and best 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 shrank to 14.4 percentage points in May, its lowest ever in data going back to 1990, according to research by investment firm Matarin Capital Management.
“Had that market climate materialized, it is likely that the dispersion of returns would have been wider,” said Jon Hale, director of North American manager research at Morningstar. “Instead, interest rates have fallen, volatility has been low and stocks have moved upward across nearly all sectors.”
One prediction did come true: Shares are now increasingly moving on their own merits rather than in response to larger macroeconomic events.
Correlations between individual shares in the S&P 500, measured over a 60-day period, have fallen to 0.31 this year, according to research firm Axioma. This month, they fell to a three-year low of 0.27. A correlation of 1 means all stocks trade in the same direction. In late 2011, as the euro-zone debt crisis intensified and the U.S. credit rating was downgraded, the measure rose above 0.7.
Still, that hasn’t been enough for active managers. Other, more-fundamental missteps have fed into their market-trailing returns: The economy hasn’t accelerated as quickly as many had anticipated, and investors overall have gravitated toward larger stocks, rather than the small stocks that many active pickers tend to buy.
Fund managers say that a rebound in smaller stocks would help active-management returns. Others are looking to the resurgence in mergers and acquisitions this year, which allows portfolio managers to make bets on potential buyout targets.